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Start the fantasy season with Hendrick at the 500

Gordon, Junior must-haves; keep eye on Smoke, Kahne

By Mark Taylor, Special to NASCAR.COM
February 13, 2009
08:03 PM EST
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We've reached that familiar time of year again. As the memories of the 2008 season begin to fade into history, it's time to kickoff another season of NASCAR racing. The Daytona 500 and Speedweeks are upon us, and as the engines fire up at Daytona International Speedway it's time to evaluate the upcoming season and get a feel for which teams will challenge for the championship and who will burst onto the scene in 2009.

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From a fantasy perspective, Daytona is very mportant for two reasons. One, it's our first peek at the drivers in the new season. Second, the performance of the different manufacturers in this race typically sets the tone for the entire season. For those who play in draft or auction leagues, Daytona can be a huge indicator of things to come for your team. Certainly the horsepower side of the teams can be evaluated after watching the Daytona race.

For those people who play salary cap, Daytona gives us the barometer to evaluate drivers for what usually turns out to be the first third of the season. As many will recall, Kyle Busch came out firing bullets in the Daytona 500 last season and he went on to win eight of the first 22 races before finally cooling off during the Chase. So pay attention and take notes on Sunday. Those who are running up front for much of the race could easily carry that momentum to Fontana, Las Vegas and beyond.

This season we've added a new statistical analysis to our race preview. Since the advent of electronic scoring a few years ago, NASCAR has added electronic scoring loops to each race track and they can track a number of racing statistics. These are commonly known as the "loop stats."

NASCAR can capture such data as green flag passes, laps in the top 15, quality passes, average running position and the list goes on and on. These statistics, some new to most racing fans, can measure the performance of each driver at the track in dizzying detail. They can be a better indicator of driver performance than merely judging a driver's finishing stats. From these loop stats is derived, through a special formula, the driver rating. This rating takes several of these loop stats into account and translates them into a score for each driver at the particular track. We think these statistics will be a valuable addition to our weekly race preview in 2009. Here are the loop stats for the last eight races at Daytona International Speedway.

Driver Avg. Fin. Qual. Passes Laps Led Laps Led % Laps-T15 Rating
Tony Stewart 14.8 594 415 28.6% 996 105.4
Kyle Busch 15.6 1,062 146 10.1% 1,080 98.3
Ryan Newman 17.1 1,077 33 2.3% 1,026 94.9
Jimmie Johnson 17.9 1,008 32 2.2% 1,094 94.7
Jeff Gordon 19.8 890 117 8.1% 1,001 93.7
Matt Kenseth 18.1 1,054 36 2.5% 1,001 92.7
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 14.0 932 105 7.2% 1,002 92.4
Kurt Busch 16.3 835 150 10.3% 883 90.5
Clint Bowyer 12.3 557 59 5.4% 515 86.9
Mark Martin 18.8 863 45 3.1% 866 84.8
Kevin Harvick 17.0 767 10 0.7% 735 83.8
Brian Vickers 18.1 648 34 2.7% 492 82.3
Jeff Burton 19.5 911 33 2.3% 774 82.0
Kasey Kahne 13.0 748 4 0.3% 606 79.9
Jamie McMurray 21.1 871 4 0.3% 700 79.1

Daytona is one of two restrictor-plate tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit, and the racing is really unique when compared to the 1.5-mile ovals which make up the bulk of the tracks on the schedule. As most of you know there are a few teams who set the pace on these superspeedways. These trends tend to change from time to time, but if the NASCAR loop statistics are any indication, the Hendrick Motorsports teams could be very dominant in this season's installment of the 500-mile event. Aside from the Hendrick drivers, all eyes will be on the two teams of the newly-formed Stewart-Haas Racing organization. As the above statistics show, teammates Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman have been very good at Daytona in past seasons for their former teams, but can they carry that excellence to their upstart teams?

The Contenders - Those in the hunt for the win

Jeff Gordon -- Gordon and the No. 24 team have a lot to prove coming into this season's Daytona 500. For the first time since his rookie season, Gordon went the entire season of 2008 without a victory. He hopes to rectify that problem in the first race and Daytona provides the perfect arena for Gordon to break his slump. With more than 500 laps led at the historic Florida track and six career wins, one as recently as 2005, Gordon can't be overlooked.

Kurt Busch -- For those who remember last season's Daytona 500, they haven't forgotten Busch pushing Penske Racing teammate Ryan Newman to the win on the last lap. Let's face it, Busch had the fastest car on the track in those closing laps and he unselfishly helped Newman win. That didn't happen by accident. Busch is an expert superspeedway driver and his four top-fives in the last five Daytona races show that Penske horsepower and Busch's driving are a great combination at Daytona.

Kyle Busch -- Possibly no other driver and team is performing as well as Busch and the No. 18 team at the restrictor-plate tracks right now. The loop statistics confirm this notion. In the past four years only Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart have led more laps than Busch and only Jimmie Johnson has more laps in the top 15 than the Joe Gibbs Racing phenom. Busch won two of the four restrictor-plate races last season, so he could be the man to beat in this season's Daytona 500.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- If Earnhardt hopes to have an improved 2009 campaign, he needs to make a statement at Daytona. For a driver who's led close to 400 laps at DIS and has two career victories, we're starting to have just the slightest doubt about Earnhardt's superspeedway driving skills. If the No. 88 team can hook-up their Chevrolet and Earnhardt can find the right drafting partner, he may collect his first restrictor-plate track win since 2004.

Solid Plays - Almost a lock for top-10, outside shot at the win

Kasey Kahne -- Sure, Kahne is not likely to sneak away with the win, but what he's accomplished at the storied speedway in recent seasons is really impressive. The No. 9 team and Kahne have found a niche here and have enjoyed a nice streak of consistency. He has four career top-10s at DIS and they've all come in the last four events at the speedway.

Jimmie Johnson -- Johnson has actually been in a slump at Daytona recently. Despite winning the last three Sprint Cup championships, Johnson has only turned in one top-10 at DIS since his Daytona 500 victory in 2006. We expect the reigning champion to get this monkey off his back this weekend and get back into the top 10 if not challenge for the win.

Tony Stewart -- Stewart has something to prove this weekend at Daytona. He's achieved two Daytona wins during his career and his loop stats in the last four years at DIS are nothing short of dazzling. However, the shift from Joe Gibbs Racing to his own team at Stewart-Haas has to be a consideration this weekend. Smoke has the driving ability and we expect the No. 14 Chevrolet to be fast, so a top-10 finish shouldn't surprise anyone. This could be his best performance in the first quarter of this season, so fantasy owners need to pounce while they can.

Kevin Harvick -- Despite not having the typical spectacular numbers at Daytona like some of the other drivers, Harvick is that kind of driver that can sneak up and win like he did in the 2007 Daytona 500. The RCR No. 29 Chevrolet it usually fast on these restrictor-plate tracks and he showed how he can charge to the front fast in this year's Budweiser Shootout.

Video: NASCAR.COM Fantasy Report

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